Relationships between teacher estimates and results in Scotland

Description

Teachers in Scotland routinely submit estimates each year to the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) as part of the awarding process for National Qualifications. This report contains analyses of the correspondence between estimates and grades awarded in August 2025, and for the years 2024, 2023, 2022, and 2019.

Documents

Date of Publication: 04 November 2025

Details

Overall, when all National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher courses were combined, attainment rates aligned well with estimated rates. In 2025, A to C attainment rates were 0.3 percentage points (pp) higher than estimated rates, which is a decrease from 1.3pp in 2024, and 2.5pp in 2023. However, in 2019, A to C attainment rates were 0.8pp lower than estimated rates. In 2025, A attainment rates were 6.1pp higher than estimate rates, which is a slight decrease from 6.2pp in 2024, unchanged from 6.1pp in 2023 and a decrease from 6.3pp in 2019.

In 2025, at National 5, 52.3% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated, 29.5% were awarded a grade above their estimate and 18.2% were awarded a lower grade than estimated. At Higher, 46.8% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated, 29.2% were awarded a grade above their estimate and 24.0% were awarded a lower grade than estimated. At Advanced Higher, 43.9% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated, 26.9% were awarded a grade above their estimate and 29.2% were awarded a lower grade than estimated. When estimated grades did not match awarded grades, they most commonly differed by one grade.

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Description

Teachers in Scotland routinely submit estimates each year to the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) as part of the awarding process for National Qualifications. This report contains analyses of the correspondence between estimates and grades awarded in August 2024, and for the years 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023.

Documents

Date of Publication: 05 November 2024

Details

Overall, when all National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher courses were combined, estimated attainment rates corresponded well with results. In 2024, A to C attainment rates were 1.3 percentage points (pp) higher than estimated grades, which is a decrease from 2.5 and 2.9pp in 2023 and 2022, respectively. However, in 2019 A to C attainment rates were 0.8 pp lower than estimated. The difference in resulted and estimated grades at grade A only is more consistent, with more grades awarded than estimated, typically between five and six pp each year.

In total, 49.5% of all national qualification level entries were awarded the same grade as estimated in 2024. At National 5, 51.6% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated, 30.8% were awarded a grade above their estimate and 17.7% were awarded a lower grade than estimated. At Higher, 46.9% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated, 29.6% were awarded a grade above their estimate and 23.5% were awarded a lower grade than estimated. At Advanced Higher, 44.3% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated, 26.8% were awarded a grade above their estimate and 29.0% were awarded a lower grade than estimated. When estimated grades did not match awarded grades, they most commonly differed by one grade.

Description

Teachers in Scotland routinely submit estimates each year to the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) as part of the awarding process for National Qualifications. This report contains analyses of the correspondence between estimates and grades awarded in August for 2023, and for the years 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022.

Documents

Date of Publication: 07 November 2023

Details

Between 2017 and 2019, when all National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher courses were combined, estimated attainment rates corresponded very well with results. Grades A to C estimates were around one percentage point higher than results, but there was a gap at grade A (estimates were typically between six and seven percentage points lower than results). In 2022 and 2023, attainment rates were higher than estimated: A to C attainment were between two and four percentage points higher than estimated. Grade A attainment in 2023 was around six percentage points higher than estimated, this gap increasing compared to 2022 (which saw a five percentage point difference between estimated and awarded A grades).

In total 49.8% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated in 2023, whilst 31.9% were awarded a higher grade and 18.3% were awarded a lower grade. When estimated grades did not match awarded grades, they most commonly differed by one grade.

Description

Teachers in Scotland routinely submit estimates each year to the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) to use in awarding National Qualifications. This report contains analyses of the correspondence between estimates and grades awarded in August for 2022 and for 2017 to 2019.

Documents

Date of Publication: 03 November 2022

Details

Overall, when all National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher courses were combined, estimated attainment rates corresponded very well with results, between 2017 and 2019, at grades A to C (typically overestimating by one percentage point) but underestimated attainment at grade A (typically underestimating by six percentage points). In 2022, attainment rates were higher than estimated: grade A to C attainment was three percentage points higher than estimated, and grade A attainment was five percentage points higher than estimated.

In total 51% of entries were awarded the same grade as estimated in 2022, whilst 30% were awarded a higher grade and 19% were awarded a lower grade. When estimated grades did not match awarded grades, they most commonly differed by one grade and the awarded grade was more often higher (than estimated) than lower.