Analysis of estimated and resulted grades for graded National Qualifications
Publication date: 4 November 2025
Contents
Introduction
This report is a summary of centre submitted estimates and how they compare to attained results for graded National Qualifications published on results day in August 2025. It reflects attainment at a particular point in time (22 July 2025) and does not include post results services.
Every year SQA collects attainment estimates from centres for each candidate entered to each qualification, where possible. This is part of the procedure for awarding National Courses. Centres provide estimates of attainment against the national standard as bands on a 9-point scale that is associated with notional percentage ranges. The relationship between bands and grades is shown in Table 1. Estimates contribute towards grade boundary decisions for a course because, when compared to candidates’ performance, they help in judging how demanding the course assessment is. SQA also collects estimates as one line of evidence in support of an ‘Exceptional Circumstances Consideration’ request.
In this release, estimate data for 2025 are presented with reference to attainment in the same year (2025), drawing comparisons with the previous year (2024) and going back to the most recent year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (2019). The different awarding arrangements in place between 2020 and 2024 prevent comparisons between or with these years without fully considering this contextual information.
Approach to awarding
Prior to 2020, SQA used its well-established awarding procedures to evaluate the performance of the course assessment. Following a period of different awarding approaches (detailed in ‘Approach to awarding 2020 to 2024’), SQA returned to well-established awarding procedures from 2025, in line with our Awarding and Grading for National Courses Policy.
Approach to awarding, 2020 to 2024
Both 2020 and 2021 are excluded from this report. In 2020, the Deputy First Minister directed SQA to issue grades primarily on the basis of teacher estimates. Grades that had been adjusted upwards in an earlier moderation process were also retained. The moderation process used in 2020 is described in detail in the methodology report for 2020.
In 2021, the Scottish Government commissioned SQA to develop an Alternative Certification Model (ACM 2021) for National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher. This model was developed by the National Qualifications 2021 Group, which had representatives from the Association of Directors of Education in Scotland (ADES), Colleges Scotland, Education Scotland, the Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS), School Leaders Scotland (SLS), the Scottish Council of Independent Schools (SCIS), Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA), the Scottish Government, National Parent Forum of Scotland, and the Scottish Youth Parliament (SYP). The model is based on teacher judgement, supported by assessment resources and quality assurance. The approach to certification adopted by SQA in 2021 is described in detail in the methodology report for 2021.
Throughout 2022, SQA worked with teachers, lecturers, learners, parents and carers to agree a wide-ranging package of support which was put in place to enable learners to demonstrate what they know, understand and can do, despite the disruption to learning caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. SQA implemented various modifications and revision support to reduce the assessment requirements for courses and increase learning and teaching time. Further details about the approach to awarding in 2022 can be found in the methodology report.
In 2023, awarding operated using the established pre-COVID procedure as far as possible to evaluate the performance of the course assessment, but with consideration given to the following factors:
- The impact of measures taken to reduce the legacy of disruption to teaching and learning caused by the pandemic.
- The impact of modifications to course assessment.
- The impact of the removal of revision support.
Awarding decisions were therefore ‘sensitive’ to these factors, ensuring that grade boundaries recognised that performance continued to be impacted. This was informed by the full range of qualitative and quantitative data used during awarding, with additional data from 2021–22 on the impact of modifications. Further details about the approach to awarding in 2023 can be found in the methodology report.
In 2024, the well-established pre-pandemic awarding procedures were used to evaluate the performance of the course assessment and, where appropriate, to consider the impact of changes to assessment as many courses returned to full course assessment. These changes to assessment included removing optionality in some question papers, and reintroducing:
- coursework components (projects, assignments, dissertations)
- optional content into question papers
- course content examined in question papers
- an exam component
Further details about the approach to awarding in 2024 can be found in the methodology report.
Methodology
Graded National Qualification data is collected in late July following the completion of certification procedures. The data is collected at around the same time each year to aid year-on-year comparisons.
Centres submit estimates of bands ranging from 1 to 9. Operationally, these bands relate to the overall mark via a notional percentage range and thus a grade. For example, a ‘band 1’ corresponds to a notional percentage range of 85% to 100%, which corresponds to a grade A (upper). The full breakdown of bands with the notional percentage range is documented in Guidance on Evidence for Estimates and is shown in Table 1.
| Band | Grade | Notional Range (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | A (upper) | 85 to 100 |
| 2 | A (lower) | 70 to 84 |
| 3 | B (upper) | 65 to 69 |
| 4 | B (lower) | 60 to 64 |
| 5 | C (upper) | 55 to 59 |
| 6 | C (lower) | 50 to 54 |
| 7 | D | 40 to 49 |
| 8 | No Award | 30 to 39 |
| 9 | No Award | 0 to 29 |
Estimate data is held for the majority of qualification entries. Entries where estimates were not submitted have been removed from this dataset (this affects fewer than 2% of entries each year). An estimate of ‘0’ is possible and this value is used when centres are unable to provide an estimate or do not enter an estimate. Estimates of ‘0’ were therefore excluded from all analyses.
For each qualification level contained in the report (National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher) both the estimated attainment rates and resulted attainments rates are calculated. As some candidates are excluded due to missing or non-applicable estimates, the resulted attainment rates may differ from the statistics in our Attainment Statistics publications.
Both estimate and attainment data by sex include only those who identified as ‘Male’ or ‘Female’. This is to prevent the candidates being recognised due to the low numbers in the ‘Not Known’ and ‘Not Applicable’ categories.
Centre types ‘Education Authority - Secondary School’ and ‘Education Authority - Special School’ are grouped as ‘Education Authority (EA) centres’; centre types ‘Independent - Secondary School’ and ‘Independent - Special School’ are grouped as ‘Independent centres’. Further education colleges and all remaining centre types, including training providers, voluntary sector organisations, HM Armed Forces, prisons and primary schools have relatively low uptake for graded National Qualifications and the range of subjects taken in these settings is also considerably narrower than that of the EA and independent centres in this release. For these reasons, estimate and attainment data by centre type include only education authority and independent centres.
The correlation between estimates and results was calculated for each qualification level and subject (using Pearson’s correlation method). Correlation is a statistical measure of the linear relationship between two variables, ranging from -1.00 to 1.00. In this report, scores were positive only, ranging from 0.00 (no relationship) to 1.00 (a very strong positive linear relationship, meaning when one variable increases, the other also increases). A negative correlation (where one variable increases while the other decreases) would be highly unusual in this context and was not found in this analysis.
Confidentiality and rounding
Percentages, percentage changes and percentage point (pp) changes are calculated using figures prior to rounding. Percentages with a value greater than zero and less than 0.05% are marked up with the shorthand [low]. Values are calculated using figures prior to rounding; the sum of rounded figures may differ from the total reported.
Patterns of attainment are not examined here but can be found in the Attainment Statistical Summary published on the SQA website.
Qualification level breakdown
Overall
For graded National Qualifications across all levels, centre estimates are collated and compared to the overall awarded results for each year.
Estimates and awards A to C attainment rates
In 2025, the proportion of results across all levels that were awarded grades A to C was 77.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points (pp) from those estimated (77.3%). This 0.3 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 1.3 pp in 2024 and increased from -0.8 pp in 2019. A positive difference highlights that, proportionally, more awards were resulted than estimated, while a negative difference implies that fewer awards were resulted than estimated.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimates and awards A to C attainment rates graphs
Estimates and awards A attainment rates
In 2025, the proportion of results across all levels that were awarded an A grade was 35.9%, an increase of 6.1 pp from those estimated (29.9%). This 6.1 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 6.2 pp in 2024 and decreased from 6.3 pp in 2019.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimates and awards A attainment rates graphs
| Type | Grade | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awarded | A | 32.6% | 38.0% | 36.2% | 35.0% | 35.9% |
| Estimated | A | 26.2% | 33.0% | 30.1% | 28.8% | 29.9% |
| Awarded | B | 24.1% | 23.7% | 23.2% | 22.5% | 23.2% |
| Estimated | B | 24.6% | 22.1% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 23.2% |
| Awarded | C | 20.7% | 18.6% | 18.9% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| Estimated | C | 27.4% | 22.3% | 22.8% | 24.0% | 24.2% |
| Awarded | A to C | 77.4% | 80.2% | 78.2% | 76.5% | 77.6% |
| Estimated | A to C | 78.3% | 77.4% | 74.7% | 75.2% | 77.3% |
| Awarded | D | 13.4% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% |
| Estimated | D | 12.2% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 12.7% |
| Awarded | No Award | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.0% |
| Estimated | No Award | 9.6% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 10.0% |
National 5
Estimates and awards A to C attainment rates
In 2025, the proportion of results at National 5 that were awarded grades A to C was 78.7%, an increase of 0.9 pp from those estimated (77.8%). This 0.9 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 2.1 pp in 2024 and increased from 0.0 pp in 2019.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimates and awards A to C attainment rates graphs
Estimates and awards A attainment rates
In 2025, the proportion of results at National 5 that were awarded an A grade was 39.4%, an increase of 7.6 pp from those estimated (31.8%). This 7.6 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 8.1 pp in 2024 and increased from 7.5 pp in 2019.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimates and awards A attainment rates graphs
| Type | Grade | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awarded | A | 35.3% | 40.3% | 38.5% | 38.2% | 39.4% |
| Estimated | A | 27.8% | 33.6% | 31.3% | 30.1% | 31.8% |
| Awarded | B | 24.0% | 23.0% | 22.4% | 21.9% | 22.5% |
| Estimated | B | 24.0% | 21.3% | 21.1% | 22.0% | 22.7% |
| Awarded | C | 19.3% | 17.5% | 17.8% | 17.5% | 16.8% |
| Estimated | C | 26.8% | 21.8% | 21.9% | 23.3% | 23.2% |
| Awarded | A to C | 78.6% | 80.8% | 78.7% | 77.6% | 78.7% |
| Estimated | A to C | 78.6% | 76.7% | 74.2% | 75.4% | 77.8% |
| Awarded | D | 12.6% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% |
| Estimated | D | 12.2% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 12.3% |
| Awarded | No Award | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% |
| Estimated | No Award | 9.2% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 9.9% |
Evaluation of candidates’ awarded and estimated grades
Further analysis of 2025 data shows that 52.3% of National 5 candidates were awarded the same result as they were estimated, while 18.2% of candidates were awarded a grade lower than they were estimated. This is further broken down to 14.5%, 3.3% and 0.4% of all candidates being awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades below their estimated grade, respectively. The remaining 29.5% of candidates achieved a higher grade than they were estimated: 22.1%, 6.1% and 1.2% of candidates were awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades above their estimated grade, respectively.
| Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ below | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2 below | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
| 1 below | 16.0% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| Same | 48.4% | 52.4% | 51.5% | 51.6% | 52.3% |
| 1 above | 23.6% | 23.4% | 23.7% | 22.8% | 22.1% |
| 2 above | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| 3+ above | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
The majority of National 5 candidates in 2025 were awarded their estimated grade (52.3%), an increase of 3.9 pp from 2019 where just under half of all estimated grades were the same as those awarded (48.4%) highlighting an increase in estimate-award accuracy. In 2025, a total of 81.8% of candidates were awarded the same grade or higher than their estimated grade. For comparison, this is a decrease of 0.5 pp from 82.3% in 2024, and an increase of 2.1 pp from 79.7% in 2019.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Award below estimate | 20.3% | 15.9% | 16.0% | 17.7% | 18.2% |
| Award same as estimate | 48.4% | 52.4% | 51.5% | 51.6% | 52.3% |
| Award above estimate | 31.3% | 31.7% | 32.4% | 30.8% | 29.5% |
To observe the National 5 estimate data in more detail, the awarded grades for each candidate are mapped to their estimated grade using the heatmap below, with each square highlighting the proportion of candidates with the corresponding awarded and estimated grades. The diagonal (outlined black boxes) highlights where result and estimate grades match. In 2025, 26.6% of candidates were estimated an A grade and were awarded an A grade. Going along the diagonal, 8.8%, 7.6%, 3.9% and 5.4%, of candidates were estimated and awarded grades B, C, D and No Award, respectively. The off-diagonal is where the estimated and resulted grades differ. For example, in 2025, 9.1% of candidates were estimated a B grade and resulted in an A grade; 1.7% of candidates were estimated a D grade and resulted in a B grade. The colouring of the heatmap shows high proportions in blue and low proportions in white. This highlights a gradient where large deviations between estimated and resulted grades are unlikely.
For all resulted grades that were not matched by their estimate in 2025 (47.7% of all National 5 grades), the majority differ by only one grade from estimated (76.9%). Where grades were awarded below the estimate, 79.7% of them differed by one grade and 20.3% of them differed by two or more grades. Where grades were awarded above the estimate, 75.1% of them differed by one grade and 24.9% of them differed by two or more grades. A similar pattern is observed across all years shown.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Higher
Estimates and awards A to C attainment rates
In 2025, the proportion of results at Higher that were awarded grades A to C was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.1 pp from those estimated (76.1%). This -0.1 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has decreased from 0.5 pp in 2024 and decreased from -1.7 pp in 2019.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimates and awards A to C attainment rates graphs
Estimates and awards A attainment rates
In 2025, the proportion of results at Higher that were awarded an A grade was 30.8%, an increase of 4 pp from those estimated (26.8%). This 4 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has increased from 3.6 pp in 2024 and decreased from 4.7 pp in 2019.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimates and awards A attainment rates graphs
| Type | Grade | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awarded | A | 28.5% | 34.9% | 32.8% | 30.3% | 30.8% |
| Estimated | A | 23.8% | 31.7% | 28.0% | 26.7% | 26.8% |
| Awarded | B | 24.3% | 24.3% | 24.1% | 23.4% | 24.2% |
| Estimated | B | 24.9% | 22.8% | 22.5% | 22.6% | 23.6% |
| Awarded | C | 22.6% | 19.9% | 20.3% | 21.2% | 20.9% |
| Estimated | C | 28.3% | 23.0% | 24.0% | 25.1% | 25.7% |
| Awarded | A to C | 75.3% | 79.1% | 77.1% | 74.9% | 75.9% |
| Estimated | A to C | 77.0% | 77.5% | 74.5% | 74.4% | 76.1% |
| Awarded | D | 15.3% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 14.2% |
| Estimated | D | 12.6% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 13.7% |
| Awarded | No Award | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% |
| Estimated | No Award | 10.4% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% |
Evaluation of candidates’ awarded and estimated grades
Further analysis of 2025 data shows that 46.8% of Higher candidates were awarded the same result as they were estimated, while 24.0% of candidates were awarded a grade lower than they were estimated. This is further broken down to 18.7%, 4.7% and 0.6% of all candidates being awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades below their estimated grade, respectively. The remaining 29.2% of candidates achieved a higher grade than they were estimated: 21.3%, 6.4% and 1.6% of candidates were awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades above their estimated grade, respectively.
| Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ below | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 2 below | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| 1 below | 18.9% | 16.8% | 16.4% | 18.1% | 18.7% |
| Same | 44.0% | 48.8% | 47.4% | 46.9% | 46.8% |
| 1 above | 22.4% | 21.5% | 22.7% | 21.5% | 21.3% |
| 2 above | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
| 3+ above | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
The largest proportion of Higher candidates in 2025 were awarded their estimated grade (46.8%), an increase of 2.8 pp from 2019 (44.0%) highlighting an increase in estimate-award accuracy. In 2025, a total of 76.0% of candidates were awarded the same grade or higher than their estimated grade. For comparison, this is a decrease of 0.5 pp from 76.5% in 2024, and an increase of 1.3 pp from 74.7% in 2019.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Award below estimate | 25.3% | 21.8% | 20.9% | 23.5% | 24.0% |
| Award same as estimate | 44.0% | 48.8% | 47.4% | 46.9% | 46.8% |
| Award above estimate | 30.7% | 29.5% | 31.7% | 29.6% | 29.2% |
To observe the Higher estimate data in more detail, the awarded grades for each candidate are mapped to their estimated grade using the heatmap below, with each square highlighting the proportion of candidates with the corresponding awarded and estimated grades. The diagonal (outlined black boxes) highlights where result and estimate grades match. In 2025, 19.6% of candidates were estimated an A grade and were awarded an A grade. Going along the diagonal, 9.1%, 8.8%, 4.4% and 4.8%, of candidates were estimated and awarded grades B, C, D and No Award, respectively. The off-diagonal is where the estimated and resulted grades differ. For example, in 2025, 7.5% of candidates were estimated a B grade and resulted in an A grade; 1.9% of candidates were estimated a D grade and resulted in a B grade. The colouring of the heatmap shows high proportions in blue and low proportions in white. This highlights a gradient where large deviations between estimated and resulted grades are unlikely.
For all resulted grades that were not matched by their estimate in 2025 (53.2% of all Higher grades), the majority differ by only one grade from estimated (75.1%). Where grades were awarded below the estimate, 77.8% of them differed by one grade and 22.2% of them differed by two or more grades. Where grades were awarded above the estimate, 72.9% of them differed by one grade and 27.1% of them differed by two or more grades. A similar pattern is observed across all years shown.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Advanced Higher
Estimate and award A to C attainment rates
In 2025, the proportion of results at Advanced Higher that were awarded grades A to C was 76.9%, a decrease of 3.9 pp from those estimated (80.8%). This -3.9 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has increased from -3.3 pp in 2024 and decreased from -4.4 pp in 2019. Of note, for Advanced Higher, this difference each year is negative, highlighting that more candidates are estimated an A to C grade than are awarded.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimate and award A to C attainment rates graphs
Estimate and award A attainment rates
In 2025, the proportion of results at Advanced Higher that were awarded an A grade was 31.4%, an increase of 2.7 pp from those estimated (28.7%). This 2.7 pp difference between resulted and estimated awards has increased from 1.8 pp in 2024 and decreased from 4.8 pp in 2019.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Estimate and award A attainment rates graphs
| Type | Grade | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awarded | A | 31.8% | 33.8% | 33.0% | 30.1% | 31.4% |
| Estimated | A | 27.0% | 35.2% | 31.2% | 28.3% | 28.7% |
| Awarded | B | 25.0% | 26.1% | 25.7% | 23.5% | 23.9% |
| Estimated | B | 29.1% | 25.9% | 25.7% | 25.8% | 26.8% |
| Awarded | C | 22.8% | 21.6% | 21.3% | 21.9% | 21.6% |
| Estimated | C | 27.9% | 22.6% | 24.3% | 24.7% | 25.2% |
| Awarded | A to C | 79.6% | 81.5% | 80.0% | 75.5% | 76.9% |
| Estimated | A to C | 84.0% | 83.7% | 81.2% | 78.8% | 80.8% |
| Awarded | D | 8.4% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 14.7% | 13.7% |
| Estimated | D | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 11.2% |
| Awarded | No Award | 11.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
| Estimated | No Award | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% |
Evaluation of candidates’ awarded and estimated grades
Further analysis of 2025 data shows that 43.9% of Advanced Higher candidates were awarded the same result as they were estimated, while 29.2% of candidates were awarded a grade lower than they were estimated. This is further broken down to 20.8%, 7.1% and 1.3% of all candidates being awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades below their estimated grade, respectively. The remaining 26.9% of candidates achieved a higher grade than they were estimated: 19.4%, 5.9% and 1.6% of candidates were awarded one, two or more than two (3+) grades above their estimated grade, respectively.
| Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ below | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 2 below | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% |
| 1 below | 18.9% | 20.7% | 19.5% | 20.7% | 20.8% |
| Same | 43.5% | 47.5% | 46.7% | 44.3% | 43.9% |
| 1 above | 20.1% | 18.6% | 20.5% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| 2 above | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% |
| 3+ above | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
The largest proportion of Advanced Higher candidates in 2025 were awarded their estimated grade (43.9%), an increase of 0.4 pp from 2019 (43.5%) highlighting an increase in estimate-award accuracy. In 2025, a total of 70.8% of candidates were awarded the same grade or higher than their estimated grade. For comparison, this is a decrease of 0.2 pp from 71.0% in 2024, and a decrease of 0.5 pp from 71.3% in 2019.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
| Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Award below estimate | 28.7% | 27.8% | 25.6% | 29.0% | 29.2% |
| Award same as estimate | 43.5% | 47.5% | 46.7% | 44.3% | 43.9% |
| Award above estimate | 27.8% | 24.7% | 27.7% | 26.8% | 26.9% |
To observe the Advanced Higher estimate data in more detail, the awarded grades for each candidate are mapped to their estimated grade using the heatmap below, with each square highlighting the proportion of candidates with the corresponding awarded and estimated grades. The diagonal (outlined black boxes) highlights where result and estimate grades match. In 2025, 19.7% of candidates were estimated an A grade and were awarded an A grade. Going along the diagonal, 9.0%, 8.3%, 3.3% and 3.6%, of candidates were estimated and awarded grades B, C, D and No Award, respectively. The off-diagonal is where the estimated and resulted grades differ. For example, in 2025, 7.8% of candidates were estimated a B grade and resulted in an A grade; 1.6% of candidates were estimated a D grade and resulted in a B grade. The colouring of the heatmap shows high proportions in blue and low proportions in white. This highlights a gradient where large deviations between estimated and resulted grades are unlikely.
For all resulted grades that were not matched by their estimate in 2025 (56.1% of all Advanced Higher grades), the majority differ by only one grade from estimated (71.6%). Where grades were awarded below the estimate, 71.2% of them differed by one grade and 28.8% of them differed by two or more grades. Where grades were awarded above the estimate, 72.0% of them differed by one grade and 28.0% of them differed by two or more grades. A similar pattern is observed across all years shown.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Sex breakdown
As detailed in our 2025 publication, Attainment Statistical Summary, over time attainment rates are typically higher for female candidates than for male candidates for all qualification levels. The following analysis looks at the estimates of these candidates for each qualification level.
National 5
In 2025, 52.3% of all National 5 candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Looking at this data by sex highlights small differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. In 2025, a greater proportion (53.8%) of female candidates were resulted with the same grade they were estimated, a difference of 3.0 pp compared to male candidates (50.8%). Of male candidates, 15.4% and 22.7% were awarded one grade below and one grade above their estimated grade, a difference of 1.8 and 1.2 pp, respectively, compared to their female counterparts (13.6% and 21.5%). The total proportion of female candidates achieving two or more grades above or below their estimated grade is 11.0%, and similarly 11.1% for male candidates.
National 5 graphs
| Sex | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 3+ below | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Male | 3+ below | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Female | 2 below | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Male | 2 below | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Female | 1 below | 15.1% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 13.6% |
| Male | 1 below | 16.9% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| Female | Same | 49.6% | 54.1% | 53.3% | 53.1% | 53.8% |
| Male | Same | 47.1% | 50.7% | 49.6% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| Female | 1 above | 23.4% | 22.6% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 21.5% |
| Male | 1 above | 23.8% | 24.3% | 24.6% | 23.1% | 22.7% |
| Female | 2 above | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% |
| Male | 2 above | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% |
| Female | 3+ above | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Male | 3+ above | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
The proportion of female candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of male candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2025, 82.8% of female candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 80.7% of male candidates. Comparing 2025 to 2024, for female candidates this is a decrease of 0.7 pp from 83.5%, and for male candidates a decrease of 0.4 pp from 81.1%. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 2.1 pp from 80.7% for female candidates and an increase of 2.1 pp from 78.6% for male candidates.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
National 5 graphs
| Sex | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | Award below estimate | 19.3% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| Male | Award below estimate | 21.4% | 16.4% | 16.6% | 18.9% | 19.3% |
| Female | Award same as estimate | 49.6% | 54.1% | 53.3% | 53.1% | 53.8% |
| Male | Award same as estimate | 47.1% | 50.7% | 49.6% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| Female | Award above estimate | 31.1% | 30.4% | 31.2% | 30.4% | 29.0% |
| Male | Award above estimate | 31.6% | 33.0% | 33.7% | 31.2% | 30.0% |
Higher
In 2025, 46.8% of all Higher candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Breaking down this data by sex highlights small differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. In 2025, a greater proportion (47.4%) of female candidates were resulted with the same grade they were estimated, a difference of 1.3 pp compared to male candidates (46.1%). Of male candidates, 19.4% and 21.3% were awarded one grade below and one grade above their estimated grade, a difference of 1.4 and 0.1 pp, respectively, compared to their female counterparts (18.1% and 21.2%). The total proportion of female candidates achieving two or more grades above or below their estimated grade is 13.4%, and similarly 13.1% for male candidates.
Higher graphs
| Sex | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 3+ below | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Male | 3+ below | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Female | 2 below | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Male | 2 below | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% |
| Female | 1 below | 18.8% | 17.0% | 16.6% | 17.8% | 18.1% |
| Male | 1 below | 19.0% | 16.7% | 16.1% | 18.4% | 19.4% |
| Female | Same | 44.6% | 49.5% | 48.1% | 47.5% | 47.4% |
| Male | Same | 43.2% | 47.8% | 46.7% | 46.1% | 46.1% |
| Female | 1 above | 22.0% | 20.6% | 21.9% | 21.3% | 21.2% |
| Male | 1 above | 23.0% | 22.5% | 23.6% | 21.8% | 21.3% |
| Female | 2 above | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% |
| Male | 2 above | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| Female | 3+ above | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| Male | 3+ above | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
The proportion of female candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of male candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2025, 76.6% of female candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 75.2% of male candidates. Comparing 2025 to 2024, for female candidates this is a decrease of 0.2 pp from 76.8%, and for male candidates a decrease of 1.0 pp from 76.1%. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 1.9 pp from 74.7% for female candidates and an increase of 0.4 pp from 74.7% for male candidates.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Higher graphs
| Sex | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | Award below estimate | 25.3% | 22.2% | 21.2% | 23.2% | 23.4% |
| Male | Award below estimate | 25.3% | 21.3% | 20.5% | 23.9% | 24.8% |
| Female | Award same as estimate | 44.6% | 49.5% | 48.1% | 47.5% | 47.4% |
| Male | Award same as estimate | 43.2% | 47.8% | 46.7% | 46.1% | 46.1% |
| Female | Award above estimate | 30.1% | 28.3% | 30.7% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Male | Award above estimate | 31.5% | 30.9% | 32.9% | 30.0% | 29.1% |
Advanced Higher
In 2025, 43.9% of all Advanced Higher candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Looking at this data by sex highlights small differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. In 2025, a greater proportion (44.1%) of female candidates were resulted with the same grade they were estimated, a difference of 0.5 pp compared to male candidates (43.6%). Of male candidates, 21.0% and 18.5% were awarded one grade below and one grade above their estimated grade, a difference of 0.3 and 1.5 pp, respectively, compared to their female counterparts (20.7% and 20.0%). The total proportion of female candidates achieving two or more grades above or below their estimated grade is 15.2%, and 16.9% for male candidates.
Advanced Higher graphs
| Sex | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 3+ below | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Male | 3+ below | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Female | 2 below | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% |
| Male | 2 below | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Female | 1 below | 19.3% | 21.2% | 19.8% | 20.9% | 20.7% |
| Male | 1 below | 18.3% | 20.1% | 19.1% | 20.4% | 21.0% |
| Female | Same | 44.1% | 47.7% | 46.8% | 44.0% | 44.1% |
| Male | Same | 42.8% | 47.3% | 46.6% | 44.5% | 43.6% |
| Female | 1 above | 20.1% | 18.6% | 21.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Male | 1 above | 20.2% | 18.6% | 20.0% | 18.3% | 18.5% |
| Female | 2 above | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
| Male | 2 above | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
| Female | 3+ above | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| Male | 3+ above | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
The proportion of female candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of male candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2025, 71.6% of female candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 69.7% of male candidates. Comparing 2025 to 2024, for female candidates this is an increase of 0.1 pp from 71.5%, and for male candidates a decrease of 0.8 pp from 70.5%. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 0.4 pp from 71.2% for female candidates and a decrease of 1.6 pp from 71.3% for male candidates.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Advanced Higher graphs
| Sex | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | Award below estimate | 28.8% | 27.8% | 25.5% | 28.5% | 28.4% |
| Male | Award below estimate | 28.7% | 27.8% | 25.6% | 29.5% | 30.3% |
| Female | Award same as estimate | 44.1% | 47.7% | 46.8% | 44.0% | 44.1% |
| Male | Award same as estimate | 42.8% | 47.3% | 46.6% | 44.5% | 43.6% |
| Female | Award above estimate | 27.1% | 24.5% | 27.7% | 27.4% | 27.5% |
| Male | Award above estimate | 28.6% | 25.0% | 27.7% | 25.9% | 26.1% |
Centre type breakdown
As detailed in our 2025 publication, Attainment Statistical Summary, over time attainment rates are higher for independent centres than for education authority (EA) centres, and the same is true for 2025. FE colleges have a relatively low uptake for graded qualifications and present candidates for a considerably narrower range of subjects. For this reason, estimates from FE colleges and other centre types are not compared here.
National 5
In 2025, 52.3% of National 5 candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Breaking down this data at a centre type level presents differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. A greater proportion (67.6%) of independent centre candidates were resulted with the same grade that they were estimated, which is 16.2 pp more than EA centre candidates (51.4%). The proportion of independent centre candidates awarded one grade below their estimated grade was 5.9%, which is 9.1 pp less than for EA centre candidates (15.0%). The proportion of independent centre candidates awarded one grade above their estimated grade was 17.7%, which is 4.8 pp less than for EA centre candidates (22.5%). The total proportion of independent centre candidates achieving two or more grades either above or below their estimated grade is 8.9%, compared with 11.1% for EA centre candidates.
National 5 graphs
| Centre type | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Authority | 3+ below | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Independent | 3+ below | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Education Authority | 2 below | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| Independent | 2 below | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Education Authority | 1 below | 16.6% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 15.0% |
| Independent | 1 below | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% |
| Education Authority | Same | 47.5% | 51.2% | 50.5% | 50.6% | 51.4% |
| Independent | Same | 62.4% | 71.0% | 68.2% | 67.6% | 67.6% |
| Education Authority | 1 above | 23.8% | 23.9% | 24.2% | 23.1% | 22.5% |
| Independent | 1 above | 21.0% | 16.4% | 17.9% | 18.8% | 17.7% |
| Education Authority | 2 above | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| Independent | 2 above | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% |
| Education Authority | 3+ above | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| Independent | 3+ above | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
The proportion of National 5 independent centre candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of National 5 EA centre candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2025, 93.1% of independent centre candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 81.2% of EA centre candidates. Comparing 2025 to 2024 for independent centres, this is a decrease of 0.2 pp from 93.3%, and for EA centres a decrease of 0.5 pp from 81.7%. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 0.6 pp from 92.4% for independent centre types, and an increase of 2.2 pp from 78.9% for EA centres.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
National 5 graphs
| Centre type | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education authority | Award below estimate | 21.1% | 16.5% | 16.6% | 18.3% | 18.8% |
| Independent | Award below estimate | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% |
| Education authority | Award same as estimate | 47.5% | 51.2% | 50.5% | 50.6% | 51.4% |
| Independent | Award same as estimate | 62.4% | 71.0% | 68.2% | 67.6% | 67.6% |
| Education authority | Award above estimate | 31.5% | 32.4% | 33.0% | 31.1% | 29.8% |
| Independent | Award above estimate | 30.0% | 21.7% | 24.5% | 25.7% | 25.5% |
Higher
In 2025, 46.8% of Higher candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Looking at this data at a centre type level presents differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. A greater proportion (56.3%) of independent centre candidates were resulted with the same grade that they were estimated, which is 10.2 pp more than EA centre candidates (46.1%). The proportion of independent centre candidates awarded one grade below their estimated grade was 10.8%, which is 8.5 pp less than for EA centre candidates (19.3%). The proportion of independent centre candidates awarded one grade above their estimated grade was 21.0%, which is 0.4 pp less than for EA centre candidates (21.4%). The total proportion of independent centre candidates achieving two or more grades either above or below their estimated grade is 12.0%, compared with 13.3% for EA centre candidates.
Higher graphs
| Centre type | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Authority | 3+ below | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Independent | 3+ below | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Education Authority | 2 below | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Independent | 2 below | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| Education Authority | 1 below | 19.4% | 17.1% | 16.7% | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| Independent | 1 below | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| Education Authority | Same | 43.4% | 47.9% | 46.6% | 46.0% | 46.1% |
| Independent | Same | 54.7% | 61.7% | 58.1% | 57.8% | 56.3% |
| Education Authority | 1 above | 22.8% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 21.6% | 21.4% |
| Independent | 1 above | 21.6% | 17.1% | 19.9% | 20.5% | 21.0% |
| Education Authority | 2 above | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% |
| Independent | 2 above | 8.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% |
| Education Authority | 3+ above | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Independent | 3+ above | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% |
The proportion of Higher independent centre candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of Higher EA centre candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2025, 87.0% of independent centre candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 75.2% of EA centre candidates. Comparing 2025 to 2024 for independent centres, this is a decrease of 0.1 pp from 87.1%, and for EA centres a decrease of 0.6 pp from 75.8%. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents an increase of 0.2 pp from 86.9% for independent centre types, and an increase of 0.8 pp from 74.4% for EA centres.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Higher graphs
| Centre type | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education authority | Award below estimate | 25.6% | 22.0% | 21.3% | 24.2% | 24.8% |
| Independent | Award below estimate | 13.1% | 14.9% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 13.0% |
| Education authority | Award same as estimate | 43.4% | 47.9% | 46.6% | 46.0% | 46.1% |
| Independent | Award same as estimate | 54.7% | 61.7% | 58.1% | 57.8% | 56.3% |
| Education authority | Award above estimate | 30.9% | 30.1% | 32.1% | 29.7% | 29.1% |
| Independent | Award above estimate | 32.2% | 23.4% | 28.3% | 29.3% | 30.8% |
Advanced Higher
In 2025, 43.9% of Advanced Higher candidates attained the grade they were estimated. Breaking down this data at a centre type level presents differences to resulted grades when compared with estimated grades. A greater proportion (52.5%) of independent centre candidates were resulted with the same grade that they were estimated, which is 10.5 pp more than EA centre candidates (42.0%). The proportion of independent centre candidates awarded one grade below their estimated grade was 13.5%, which is 8.8 pp less than for EA centre candidates (22.3%). The proportion of independent centre candidates awarded one grade above their estimated grade was 20.4%, which is 1.2 pp more than for EA centre candidates (19.2%). The total proportion of independent centre candidates achieving two or more grades either above or below their estimated grade is 13.6%, compared with 16.5% for EA centre candidates.
Advanced Higher graphs
| Centre type | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Authority | 3+ below | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% |
| Independent | 3+ below | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Education Authority | 2 below | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% |
| Independent | 2 below | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| Education Authority | 1 below | 20.2% | 21.5% | 20.9% | 22.0% | 22.3% |
| Independent | 1 below | 12.6% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 13.5% |
| Education Authority | Same | 41.5% | 45.5% | 44.7% | 42.6% | 42.0% |
| Independent | Same | 52.7% | 57.8% | 56.1% | 51.6% | 52.5% |
| Education Authority | 1 above | 20.1% | 19.2% | 20.5% | 19.0% | 19.2% |
| Independent | 1 above | 20.4% | 15.6% | 20.7% | 20.5% | 20.4% |
| Education Authority | 2 above | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% |
| Independent | 2 above | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% |
| Education Authority | 3+ above | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Independent | 3+ above | 2.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% |
The proportion of Advanced Higher independent centre candidates who attained their estimated grade is greater than the proportion of Advanced Higher EA centre candidates achieving their estimated grade for each year presented here. In 2025, 82.5% of independent centre candidates achieved their estimated grade or higher, compared with 68.4% of EA centre candidates. Comparing 2025 to 2024 for independent centres, this is an increase of 1.5 pp from 81.0%, and for EA centres a decrease of 0.5 pp from 68.9%. Since 2019 (pre-pandemic) this represents a decrease of 0.2 pp from 82.6% for independent centre types, and a decrease of 0.6 pp from 68.9% for EA centres.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Advanced Higher graphs
| Centre type | Grade difference | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education authority | Award below estimate | 31.1% | 29.1% | 27.7% | 31.1% | 31.6% |
| Independent | Award below estimate | 17.4% | 21.0% | 15.7% | 19.0% | 17.5% |
| Education authority | Award same as estimate | 41.5% | 45.5% | 44.7% | 42.6% | 42.0% |
| Independent | Award same as estimate | 52.7% | 57.8% | 56.1% | 51.6% | 52.5% |
| Education authority | Award above estimate | 27.4% | 25.4% | 27.6% | 26.2% | 26.3% |
| Independent | Award above estimate | 30.0% | 21.2% | 28.2% | 29.4% | 30.0% |
Subject type breakdown
In this section, the relationship between estimated and resulted grades is summarised by subject grouping. The following table shows which subjects fall within each category. At subject level, a range of factors are expected to impact the connection between estimated and resulted awards. For each qualification, it is possible to capture the similarity between estimated and resulted grades in a single metric, known as the correlation. The correlation measures the strength of the relationship between the two metrics, producing a ‘correlation value’ ranging between 0.00 and 1.00, where 1.00 represents an exact match between estimated grades and awarded grades for all candidates and 0.00 denotes resulted grades having no correspondence to the estimated grade for all candidates. The correlation calculation requires a spread of results in both the estimated and resulted grade, and so low uptake subjects (fewer than 100 entries) have been removed from the following calculations to take account of this. The subjects at each qualification level are represented by a single point in the correlation plot below. To prevent overlap, the points are scattered along the x-axis which shows the density of subjects around each correlation value.
The data for the following figures can be found in the accompanying tables.
| Group | Subjects |
|---|---|
| Business | Accounting, Administration and IT, Business Management, Economics, English for Speakers of Other Languages |
| Care | Care, Childcare and Development |
| Creative | Art and Design, Dance, Drama, Media, Music, Music Technology, Photography, Art and Design (Expressive), Art and Design (Design), Music: Portfolio |
| English | English |
| Home Economics | Fashion and Textile Technology, Health and Food Technology, Hospitality: Practical Cake Craft, Hospitality: Practical Cookery, Practical Cake Craft, Practical Cookery |
| Languages | Cantonese, English for Speakers of Other Languages, French, Gaelic (Learners), Gaidhlig, German, Italian, Latin, Mandarin (Simplified), Mandarin (Traditional), Spanish, Urdu |
| Mathematics | Applications of Mathematics, Mathematics, Gniomhachas Matamataigs (Applications of Mathematics), Matamataig (Mathematics), Mathematics of Mechanics, Statistics |
| PE | Physical Education |
| Science | Biology, Chemistry, Environmental Science, Physics, Human Biology |
| Social Science | Classical Studies, Geography, History, Modern Studies, Philosophy, Psychology, Religious, Moral and Philosophical Studies, Sociology, Cruinn-eolas (Geography), Eachdraidh (History), Nuadh-Eolas (Modern Studies), Politics |
| Technology | Computing Science, Design and Manufacture, Engineering Science, Graphic Communication, Practical Electronics, Practical Metalworking, Practical Woodworking |
National 5
The Care subject grouping encompasses two lower uptake subjects (Care, and Childcare and Development) and so comparisons with this grouping are unreliable and are not considered here for National 5. In 2025, of all National 5 subject groupings, Languages has the lowest proportion of candidates attaining a grade below their estimate at 12.5%. In contrast, Social Science subjects have the highest proportion of candidates attaining a grade below their estimate (26.4%). Across the years, PE and Language subjects have consistently low proportions of candidates attaining grades below their estimate, while Technology and Social Science subjects feature high proportions of candidates with grades below their estimates. PE and Languages have the highest proportions of grades mathcing the estimates, at 62.1% and 61.0% respectively, while Business subjects have the lowest proportion (44.9%), and this is similar across the years. Business and English subjects have the highest proportions of candidates with grades above their estimates, at 38.4% and 36.3% respectively, and this is again similar across the years.
National 5 graphs
In 2025, the lowest correlation value (0.55) sits a short distance away from the next lowest value. However, many subjects have a correlation value close to the mean (0.72), and so we can see more points congregating where the shape outline widens. The range of correlation values in 2025 is less than the other years presented here (0.31, 0.37, 0.40 and 0.40 in 2025, 2024, 2023 and 2019 respectively). When comparing 2025 with 2019, not only is the range of subject correlations reduced but the mean correlation is greater in 2025 (0.72) compared to 2019 (0.67), which indicates an increase in the proportion of estimates matching awarded grades.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Higher
The Care subject grouping encompasses two lower uptake subjects (Care, and Childcare and Development) and so comparisons with this grouping are unreliable and are not considered here. In 2025, of all Higher subject groupings, Languages and Mathematics have the lowest proportion of candidates attaining a grade below their estimate at 17.5% and 19.7%, respectively. In contrast, Home Economics subjects have the highest proportion of candidates attaining a grade below their estimate (44.7%). Across the years observed here, Mathematics and PE subjects have consistently low proportions of grades below estimates, while Technology and Home Economic subjects have high proportions of grades below estimates. Language subjects have the highest proportion of grades matching the estimates (63.6%), and Home Economics subjects have the lowest proportion (36.6%), and this is similar across the years observed here. Business subjects have the highest proportion of grades awarded above estimates (34.4%) with Languages and Technology subjects having the lowest proportions (19.0% and 20.1% respectively), and this is again similar across the years observed.
Higher graphs
In 2025, the four lowest correlation values sit a distance away from the other correlation values. However, many subjects have a correlation value close to the mean (0.66), and so we can see more points congregating where the shape outline widens. The range of Higher subject correlation values in 2025 is similar to the other years presented here (0.42, 0.47, 0.42 and 0.44 in 2025, 2024, 2023 and 2019 respectively). The mean correlation value has increased over the years, from 0.62 in 2019 to 0.66 in 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in the proportion of estimates matching awarded grades.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Advanced Higher
The Home Economics subject grouping encompasses only one lower uptake subject (Health and Food Technology) at Advanced Higher level, and so comparisons with this grouping are unreliable and are not considered here. In 2025, of all Advanced Higher subject groupings, Languages have the lowest proportion of candidates attaining a grade below their estimate at 21.5%. This is contrasted by PE subjects which have the highest proportion of candidates attaining a grade below their estimate (45.6%). This pattern is similar across the years observed here, with Languages having consistently low proportions of grades below estimates, with PE subjects having high proportions of grades below estimates. Languages and Mathematics subjects have the highest proportions of grades matching the estimates, (55.0% and 49.3% respectively), with Technology and PE subjects having the lowest proportions (35.9% and 34.5%). Across the years, Technology, PE and English subjects tend to have low proportions of grades that match estimates. For grades awarded above estimates, Social Science and Creative subjects have the highest proportions (33.5% and 29.5%), with PE subjects having the lowest proportion of candidates attaining grades above estimates (19.9%). Across the years, PE, Technology and Languages subjects tend to have low proportions of grades that are above estimates.
Advanced Higher graphs
Many subjects have a correlation value close to the mean (0.59), and where the shape outline widens this indicates where several points congregate. The range of correlation values for Advanced Higher subjects in 2025 (0.23) is lower than all previous years. However, the mean correlation value has increased in 2025 to 0.59 from 0.56 in 2019, but has decreased from 0.62 and 0.60 in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Note: The gap in data for 2020 and 2021 in these figures indicates that alternative approaches to assessment, relying on teacher judgement, were used to award grades and allow learners to progress.
Additional information
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Date of publication: 4 November 2025
Contact name: Chris Boulter
Contact email: data.analytics@sqa.org.uk